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January 2026 Bend Housing Market Update

At first glance, December’s numbers look uneventful. Activity slowed, fewer homes came on the market, and prices edged lower. That description, while accurate, misses what is actually happening beneath the surface. When we compare December not just to November, but also to the same time last year, a clearer picture emerges. This is not a market losing momentum. It is a market that has become more selective, more segmented, and more sensitive to strategy.

For both buyers and sellers, the biggest risk right now is assuming that silence means inactivity.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates remained relatively stable through December, generally sitting in the low-6% range. However, in the first few weeks of January, rates have dipped even lower and now sit right around 6% and for some borrowers, the upper 5% range. The chart below shows just how far we have come in the last year, which has no doubt helped with affordability. This past year, we have seen fewer buyers stretching to try to make numbers work and instead, those that can wait have been trying to remain patient for lower rates. We are now at rate levels we have seen only 1 other time since late 2022, and we will see how many of those potential buyers decide to take action.

Median Home Price

The median price in Bend declined to $731,000 in December, down slightly from $737,450 in November and down about 1.4% from $741,250 in December of last year.

We have been saying for some time, despite monthly changes in the median price, this market has remained essentially flat over the past 4 years. Sellers are slowly adjusting expectations, and at the same time, buyers are consistently pushing back on anything that feels misaligned with current value.

For buyers, this creates opportunity, but not across the board. Discounts are showing up through negotiation and price reductions, not through widespread price collapse. For sellers, it reinforces that pricing correctly from the start matters.

New Listings

There were 85 new listings in December, down from 115 in November. What makes this more interesting is that this is identical to the number of new listings we saw in December 2024. Despite lower rates (and mild weather conditions), we did not see a flood of new listings come to the market over the last 30 days. This is not all that surprising, since December is historically a very slow time for new listings. However, if we continue to see rates in the high 5%/low 6% range, it will be interesting to see how many sellers begin to get their homes listed in the coming months. We have been talking about the “rate lock” effect for some time, with sellers locked in at 3% unwilling to trade up to a 7-8% rate. However, the recent drops in rates changes this dynamic and might finally get some of them off the sidelines.

Pending Sales, Closings, and Inventory

Pending sales declined to 124 in December, down from 158 in November. This drop is typical for the time of year. However, when we compare year over year, pending sales were higher than December 2024, when only 111 homes went under contract. This shows us that demand continues to fall into the expected range from the past few years, and is evidenced in the chart below.

Closings tell a similar story. December saw 160 closed sales, up significantly from 122 in December of last year. This matters because it shows that buyer demand is actually stronger than it was a year ago. Keep in mind that closings represent pending sales activity from the month prior, so we are actually seeing some sustained interest from buyers over the last two months of the year (typically very slow months for real estate). It will be interesting to see how this activity continues as the new year progresses.

Inventory fell meaningfully as well. Active homes dropped from 633 in November to 505 in December. We always have an asterisk on this data point as the end of the year always sees a drop in inventory as unsold homes expire or get canceled. Some of these sellers won’t come back on the market, but many will. Interestingly, nearly 50% of the homes that were delisted nationally over the past few months, were purchased in the last 5 years. What does this mean? It tells us that these sellers are struggling with the fact that prices have not gone up much in that timeframe but also unwilling to lower prices enough to get the homes sold. If pricing does tick back up, we may have some sellers who decide to step back in.

Days on Market

Days on Market for pending homes is at 66 Days. This means that the homes that went Pending in December received their accepted offer in just over 2 months. This is identical to December 2024 and just slightly lower than in November. As you can see in the chart below, Days on Market usually peaks in December and then proceeds to decline for about 6 months before beginning to tick up again. For reference, in 2025, the low point was 80% off the peak. This means buyers should be mindful that it is likely to get more competitive in the coming months.

For sellers, this reinforces the need for patience and realistic expectations. For buyers, it means time is on your side, but good homes are still getting absorbed once value aligns.

Additional Points to consider:

Negotiation: Homes sold in December at 98.1% of final list price. This means that buyers are currently negotiating about 1.9% off the list price compared to 2.3% last year.

Price Changes: At the same time, the average sale-to-original-list ratio was 93.4%. This means that on average sellers reduce price by about 4.3% before negotiating further.

Financed Buyers: On average, 78.1% of sales in December had mortgages. This is up sharply from 63.1% in December 2024. With mortgage rates down about 1% in the past year, this has clearly gotten financed buyers off the fence.

Bottom Line
December did not signal a weakening market. It confirmed a market that is increasingly disciplined. Buyers are active, but selective. Sellers are adjusting, but cautiously. Supply is constrained, and although demand is there, it is not overwhelming. As we continue into 2026, early-year listing activity and buyer response will be critical. The factors of supply and demand are squarely at play and time will tell how the balance of buyers and sellers factor into price movements in the coming months.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at [email protected] or on my cell at 541-280-2132.

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help.