Market Data and Statistics

For much of the year, we have highlighted interest rates as the key variable shaping buyer behavior. Rates have continued to fluctuate within the 6.5-7% range, with most recent moves putting us on the lower part of this range. Much of the drop has come from anticipation of what the Fed will be doing with the Fed Funds Rate and real time analysis of economic numbers.  The most recent jobs report showed signs that the job market is tighter and tougher than previous reports had indicated, which is a potential sign that the economy continues to slow. Although information like this can scare potential buyers, mortgage rates dropped more than they had in over a year on this news. As we look to the Fed and their rate decisions and forward looking comments, please remember that whatever they decide or say with regard to “future rate cuts” they are not referring to mortgage rates.  For a real time analysis of mortgage rate movement and rate cut announcements, look no further than last year. The line noted in the chart here shows the date the Fed cut their Fed Funds Rate by ½ point last September. As you can see, mortgage rates dropped in the weeks leading up to the announcement, but did nothing but tick up after the announcement. If you are waiting for the Fed to cut their rate to get a better mortgage rate, history would indicate that this can be a risky proposition.

As we moved through August, new listings in Bend dropped from 288 to 224. This is roughly the same percentage drop that we saw from July to August in 2024 and falls in line with the normal cycle of new listings. Often people aim to bring their homes on during the spring months and as the year proceeds, the number of new listings drops. This cycle is extremely consistent and so for those sellers who have some flexibility in selling their house, it begs the question as to when the best time to list would be. While the answer is ultimately related to your individual plans, there are arguments to be made for listing in the “off season” which is a time when you compete with fewer homes. As we have seen, there is evidence that buyers are here and typically just being selective. Regularly, they watch the new listings for months, knowing that there are more to come. However, when a buyer who needs to move sees fewer homes coming on the market, they can often start to get a little anxious and more motivated. Positioning yourself to stand out amidst falling competition can be a strategy that works well.  We would be happy to see if this makes sense for you.

A couple of months ago, we noted that the days on market for pending sales were starting to diverge from the days on market for sold homes. This means that homes that sold last month (and therefore went pending 30–45 days prior to that) took about as long to sell as homes that were currently pending (likely under contract in the last 30 days). We were seeing that the homes that are currently pending were taking more time to sell than the ones in the prior month. If you follow the Bend market, you would have seen that Days on Market increased to 31 days last month. However, would it surprise you to hear that it is actually taking about 43 days to get an accepted offer right now?  If you are a seller and trying to position your home to sell, we think it is important to have the latest information and see the trends in real time so you can stay one step ahead.

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