Market Data & Statistics | The Ladd Group

Where is the housing market heading?

As we move into the holiday season, the Bend real estate market continues to reflect a mood of cautiousness. Sellers do not want to leave money on the table, and buyers don’t want to overpay. Sellers are increasingly pragmatic, adjusting pricing and expectations, while buyers remain patient, often waiting for value to emerge. Both buyers and sellers are grappling with the desire to wait for “better opportunities” down the road, but often housing moves are based on a fundamental need and not perfectly planned timing. We are basing these statements on the countless conversations we are having with clients as well as the general public. In terms of the data from the past month, October brought modest shifts rather than sweeping changes. This is a market where timing, preparation, and perspective matter more than ever. Let’s examine the latest numbers and consider what they signal as we approach the year’s end.

Mortgage Rates

This past month, we saw rates continue to trend in the direction that provides relief for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, rate relief over the past few months has led to about $300 in savings on monthly payments nationally for a median-priced home. In Bend, where our median is significantly higher than the national averages, the savings would be greater. When you combine this easing of rates with softening prices in certain areas and price points, it has led to improved affordability for some buyers. By no means does it solve the affordability issues, but it is a start. With regard to sellers, we have talked about how many owners who would otherwise be sellers are feeling “locked in” and reluctant to give up their low rates. As rates come down, this has led to more people making the decision to sell. The balance of buyers and sellers over the next few months will be important in determining which direction we head in 2026. As it stands now, we are seeing signs that things are very balanced and not likely to shoot to any extremes.

Median Price

The median home price across Bend is now $781,000, and this is up 1% from the start of the year and down 4% from this time last year. If you have read our market updates before, you know that the median can jump around significantly on a monthly basis simply based on which end of the market is most active that month. However, when you back things out and look at it over the long run, you see stability. How stable is it? The chart below shows the median over roughly the past 4 years. Despite monthly swings of 5-10% throughout this stretch, the market has essentially been flat. After a significant run-up during the pandemic years, to see 4 years of relatively stable prices and activity is a sign that market dynamics are not out of balance.

New Listings

Last month, we noted that new listings, despite dropping slightly, held stronger than expected. We said the following: “Although there were fewer new listings than the month before, the drop was significantly smaller than normal. This means that there was actually an increased number of sellers coming on the market this late in the season (compared to recent norms). Was this a one-month anomaly or the sign of a potential shift in the supply/demand equilibrium?” Well, after seeing the data this past month, it appears to have been an anomaly, as new listings continued to drop on par with what we have seen in years past. Given this, we would expect this number to continue to drop in November and December and then start to tick up early in the new year. This is what new listings have looked like over the last 4 years. Seeing this makes it clear that, aside from a few minor blips, the overall movement has been pretty predictable.

Pending Sales

Similar to the pattern for new listings, we typically see the number of new pending sales drop as the year winds down. This was the case from September to October, and overall, we stand at a similar level of pending sales to years past. However, since the drop felt a little more significant this year, we thought we would look at the percent change in the number of pending sales between September and October over the past 4 years. As you can see in the table, there was a steeper decline in 2025 than there was in 2024, but the decline was very close to what we saw in 2022 and 2023. We will keep watching for changes in the patterns, but at this point, despite what you may hear in the headlines, the data shows that we are trending as expected.

Days on Market (DOM) for Pending Homes

As many of us know, the amount of time it takes homes to get an accepted offer has increased. To continue with the seasonal trend theme, this would be expected. However, what is significant here is the speed at which the days on market increased. As you can see in this chart, although we are on the upper end of the range over the last 10 years, the pattern is clear. If you look closely, we normally see the low around April and the high in December. This year, we made that same move between April and October. Of course, the next question is whether or not it will jump next month. Last month, we said this… “...would it surprise you to hear that this number will likely go up by another two weeks next month?” and this was exactly what happened. Looking at the data here, it doesn't look like it will jump much in November, but we will have to keep an eye on the sales in the next few weeks to see if anything shifts.

Some other points to consider

Negotiation and price changes: Right now, the average home sells at a discount of 2.2% off the list price, after an average price reduction of about 4.9%. Both of these numbers went down this last month to the advantage of the buyer. However, if you are a buyer, it would be wise to remember that some homes are priced perfectly or even under value, and if you simply try to negotiate a standard amount, you will miss opportunities. For perspective, last month, we saw closings ranging from 82%-109% of list price.

Macroeconomics: With the government shutdown over, we will begin to get a more complete look at the most current inflation and jobless numbers in the coming weeks. Indications are that the Fed may be a bit more reluctant to lower rates at their next meeting, but that remains to be certain, and predictions will continue to evolve in the coming weeks.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at [email protected] or on my cell at 541-280-2132.