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February 2026 Bend Housing Market Update

January’s numbers tell a very different story than December’s. What looked like a quiet, disciplined market at year end has shifted as we move into 2026. We often say that this time of year can be very weather dependent, and with the mild conditions, activity has picked up. New listings have surged and buyers are stepping forward in greater numbers. This is the time of year when momentum begins to build. The key question is not whether the market is active. It is whether supply and demand will stay balanced as we move into spring.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have continued hovering around the 6% level. Compared to a year ago, that improvement in affordability is clearly influencing buyer behavior, and we are now seeing the impact in the data. Financed sales made up 73.1% of January sales and while that is lower than it was in December (78.4%) it is higher than where it was at the end of last year (63.1%). There was a good stretch of last year where 1 out of every 3 buyers was paying cash, and now with some rate relief it is closer to 1 in 4. The takeaway is that financing is no longer the barrier it was in early 2024 and 2025. Buyers who were waiting for rate relief appear to be reentering the market, particularly as we approach the historically stronger spring months.

Median Home Price

The median price in January rose slightly to $735,000. That is up 0.5% from December’s $731,000. However, on a year over year basis, prices are down about 5.1% from January 2025, when the median sat at $774,900. This reinforces what we have been saying for months. While month to month numbers move around, the broader market has remained relatively flat with a slight downward bias over the past year. For buyers, this creates opportunity. We are not seeing widespread price appreciation erode affordability. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of pricing correctly. The days of relying on rapid appreciation to cover overpricing are behind us. Please note that there is also something hidden in the pricing data. For more on this, please see the “Points to Consider” section at the end.

New Listings

January saw 166 new listings come to market. That is a 95% increase from December’s 85 new listings. Although this sounds alarming, when you look at the seasonal patterns, that is not surprising. What is more notable is that new listings are actually down 11% compared to January 2025, when 187 homes came on the market. So while inventory is expanding from its December lows, we are still operating with fewer new sellers than we had a year ago. We would expect this to continue to increase with each month between now and summer, before tapering off again in the second half of the year. The big factor this spring will be how many sellers feel less “locked” by their low interest rates. With rates now in the 6% range (they were around 7% this time last year) we may see more sellers test the market this spring. The rate lock effect is still real, but it has softened as borrowing costs have improved from their peaks.

Pending Sales and Inventory

Pending sales jumped to 154 in January. That is up 24% from December and 12% higher than January 2025. This is one of the most important signals in this report. Demand is not fading. In fact, it is quietly strengthening. Strictly looking at closed sales in January, you would see a decline of about 17% from January 2025. However, we would caution watching the closed sales numbers too closely, as they reflect contracts written in prior months, and December’s seasonally slower pending activity is now showing up in January’s closed numbers. The stats for pending sales tell you what is happening in real time.

Inventory dropped to 464 active homes, down from 505 in December and down 13% from 535 one year ago. Even with the surge in new listings, total available inventory remains lower than it was at this time last year. This combination of rising pending sales and declining inventory is something to watch closely. If this trend continues through February and March, we could see upward pressure on pricing in select segments.

Days on Market

Homes that went pending in January averaged 58 days on market. That is down from 66 days in December and nearly identical to the 59 days we saw in January 2025. Seasonally, days on market tend to peak in late fall and early winter before declining through the spring. That pattern appears to be unfolding again. For buyers, this means the window of maximum leverage may be narrowing.For sellers, it signals that well priced homes are beginning to move more quickly.

Additional Points to Consider:

Negotiation: Homes sold in January at 97.7% of final list price. This means that buyers are currently negotiating about 2.3% off the list price compared to 1.8% at this time last year.

Price Changes: At the same time, the average sale-to-original-list price ratio was 93.0%. This means that on average sellers reduce price by about 4.7% before negotiating further.

Closed with Concessions: Last month 44.5% of the sales closed with the seller offering some type of credit or concession. This could be a credit for closing costs, to make repairs, buy down an interest rate, or a number of other reasons. For perspective, before rates started to spike in early 2022, this number was closer to 15-20%. Prices may be holding firm, but sellers are needing to incentivize buyers in other ways.

Bottom Line

January did not signal weakness. It signaled reacceleration. For buyers, opportunity still exists, but timing matters. As activity builds, negotiating leverage may slowly compress. For sellers, the signs of increasing demand is a good thing, but strategy remains critical as competition will undoubtedly grow in the coming months. The homes that win are the ones that are priced in alignment with current conditions from day one.

The early months of 2026 are already giving us important clues. The balance between supply and demand is tightening, not loosening. We will be watching closely to see whether February and March confirm this trend.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at [email protected] or on my cell at 541-280-2132.

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help.