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August Market Update | Bend Real Estate

The Bend real estate market is settling into its new norm, with the perspective on which way it’s headed being dependent on which side of the transaction you are on. Buyers continue to navigate affordability concerns and are wary of overpaying, but also enticed by mortgage rates that have eased to their lowest level this year. Simultaneously, sellers are feeling the pressure of sustained inventory increases and longer listing times. We would characterize this as a balanced, yet dynamic market, with neither side commanding clear dominance. Buyers and sellers remain attuned to rate shifts, seasonal rhythms, and ongoing economic subtleties. Below, we explore how these forces shape strategic opportunities for buyers and sellers as we approach fall.

Mortgage Rates

For some time we have been talking about interest rate projections and how those have been affecting buyer activity. Over the course of the year, we have seen rates fluctuate between 6.5-7% with us currently on the low end of that range. We had mentioned that since interest rates are only part of the calculation for buyers (price and need are two other big ones), we thought we would change the conversation here to look at how many people are seeking mortgages. We had speculated that for those that truly needed a home, waiting indefinitely for rates wasn’t an option. Also, with some more price reductions/negotiations this year, it has allowed buyers to make up for a higher rate with a “discounted” price. Given this, we thought it would be helpful to look at how the combination of mortgage rate, price, and fundamental need for a home has impacted actual applications for new mortgages. In looking at the associated chart, we can see that for the first couple of months, mortgage applications were consistent with what we saw last year. However, since about March, we have seen new mortgage applications remaining consistently higher than what was the norm in 2024. This tells us that our assumption was correct and that even if pending sales aren’t outpacing last year, there are a number of people applying for loans and at least getting prepared for a purchase. This is a sign that buyer demand is there, even if they are being slower and more cautious. More to come on that.

Median Price

Yes, you will see headlines that the median price is up 8% this past month. Although that sounds alarming, let’s take a different look at this. Would it surprise you to hear that it is where it was last July? That doesn’t catch as many eyes as saying that it was up big in the last 30 days. If we look back to the start of the year, we are up about 9% for non-acreage properties and up about 1.7% for all properties in Bend. It is also worth pointing out that every month this year has seen the median move more than 5% away from the prior month. We have discussed this before, but at a high level, with transaction volume being as low as it is, the median is very susceptible to big swings based on market activity. When a larger than normal number of homes sell at either extreme on the price spectrum, it has the tendency to cause the median to move more dramatically than it would if there were more homes selling. Looking over the last few years, you can see a lot of monthly swings, but overall, we are pretty flat.

New Listings

As expected, the number of new listings has continued to drop, albeit slightly. In July, we saw 288 new listings across Bend. This is down from 308 in June and a high of 390 in May. As you can see in the chart, the pattern for new listings is remarkably consistent over the past 10 years. Other than the top missing from the chart right at the start of COVID, we generally peak around the same time (May) every year and bottom out in December. There are of course reasons people move in the spring (weather, school schedules, etc.) and why people choose not to list in the heart of the holiday season. But looking at these numbers, it begs the question. If you are a seller who has some flexibility, would you rather list when nearly 400 other people are listing their homes in May, or when the number of competitors is closer to 100? There are strategies that are worth considering, so reach out if you want to chat about options.

Pending Sales

Pending sales, although consistent over the past few years, remain significantly under what we had grown accustomed to in the pre-pandemic years. In fact, in July we saw 205 pending sales in Bend (down from 214 in June). However, if we compare that to the number of pending sales from 2016-2019, we routinely saw around 275 pending sales every July. That means, we are seeing roughly 25% fewer homes selling now than we did in the pre-pandemic era. The interesting part here, and where there is a disconnect in the market, is that in 2016-2019, we had almost exactly the same number of homes for sale as we do now. This is a clear sign that there are either not as many buyers, or there are buyers who are not as eager as they were back then. Both of which are likely true. Since we are shedding some light on similarities and differences between the late 2010s and now, it is worth noting that interest rates were between 3.5-4.5% back then and roughly 2 points higher now. That would explain why buyers are currently slower or unwilling to act.

Days on Market (DOM) for Pending Homes

Last month, we discussed that the median days on market for pending and sold properties was the same. We thought it was worth mentioning since often people quote only the “sold” days on market. This shows us how long the homes that sold that month took to sell. However, this info is a bit dated given that the homes that are selling in July, actually went pending in late May or June. What we think is a more accurate approach, and something that can give an indication of what is happening currently, is to look at the days on market for the homes that are currently pending. This will tell us what is happening right now, and give us a look at how the median time to sell is shifting in real time. In July, the median days on market for closed sales was 20, but the current median days on market for pending sales is 35! By looking at the pending sales, we can see that it is shifting and things are taking longer. Having said this, it is worth pointing out that homes that are priced and marketed well can still sell quickly, and about 20% of the current pending sales went under contract in less than a week. We would caution that buyers don’t let the rising days on market trick you into thinking everything will take that long.

Some other points to consider…

Negotiation: The average sale to original list price was 95.5% in July in Bend. The average sale to the last list price was 98.2%, The difference here is that the second number tells the story after any price reductions. Given this, the average home sells at a discount of 1.8% of list price after taking an average price reduction of about 2.7%. For perspective, the average price reduction was 1.9% in June.

Inflation: This number remains to be a focus of the Fed, but with announcements of tariffs taking place on a number of materials from different parts of the world. The Fed appears reluctant to make any extreme moves with their monetary policy. You can see a chart of inflation here.

Canceled Sales: A recent report showed that 1 in 7 homes feel out of contract nationally last month. It is worth noting that there have been some conflicting numbers here, with an NAR report showing less than 10%. However, there is no question that locally, we are seeing more “sale fails” due to reasons on the buy side than we have in years past.

We hope you find this information valuable and that it helps you towards your ultimate real estate goals. If you have any questions about this month’s content or would like to dive a little deeper into the data, please reach out to your Ladd Group broker. If you don’t have one, you can reach me at [email protected] or on my cell at 541-280-2132.

There are also several ways to reach the team, so please let us know how we can help.